A clearer view of
what could come next.

The signal library

Live coverage and the next observation channels. Planned signals do not contribute to today's brief.

Evidence before interpretation.

Observed fact

A dated, traceable observation. A release proves what an institution announced, not that every claim in it is independently verified.

Inferred relationship

An interpretation linked to supporting observations, with confidence and alternatives.

Hypothesis

A conditional “could lead to” chain with a time horizon, confirmation criteria, and a way to disprove it.

Rumor

An unverified assertion, quarantined from danger scoring and automatic publication.

Danger is not probability

The framework weights impact (50%), exposure (30%), and speed of transmission (20%) on a 0–100 scale. Confidence is separate. No score is shown without sufficient evidence. V1 has no calibrated predictive model.

Briefs use a rolling seven-day window. A quiet feed is not evidence of a safe market. Coverage failures and gaps remain visible.